Afl
Round 7
Friday, May 2nd
Carlton vs Collingwood, at the MCG 7:50pm
Carlton notched up their second win of the season last weekend
coming from 4 goals down against the Eagles. Marc Murphy is getting back to
some of his best form and his team is following suit. Carlton are ranked fourth
for clearances and need to continue this trend to get quick entry into their
forward line. Collingwood had a remarkable come from behind victory last week,
and looking to cement themselves into the top 4 at the early stage of the year.
Coming from 5 goals down at quarter time to win by 23 points at the final siren.
Going into this round they can’t take their foot off the throttle, with their
midfielders in blistering form while kicking goals this is the area they need
to exploit Carlton’s rebound run.
Tip: Collingwood 40+ @ $2.65. Nathan Buckley will go into
this game looking to crush Mick and his team. With their undersized backline
look for Cloke and White to bag a couple of goals each.
Saturday, May 3rd
Hawthorn vs St Kilda, at the MCG 1:45pm
Hawthorn were back to their dominating best last week annihilating
a disappointing Richmond. Mitchell is playing career best footy across half
back and his team mates are loving it. With the recruitment of McEvoy paying
off and the other young players chipping in, this outfit is looking at another
strong year. St Kilda were underwhelming last weekend, playing catch up from
the word go although only going down by 3 points. With the Captain well
contained last week, look to him to fire out of the blocks and run the Hawthorn
defence off their feet this weekend.
Tip: Hawthorn -11.5 Quarter time line @ $1.90. A 2 goal line
should be easy enough for Hawthorn to cover. If they come out with as much
intent as they did last week look for easy money here.
Greater Western Sydney vs Port Adelaide, at Startack Oval
2:10pm
The Giants played very well last week but were quite simply
just outclassed by a hard running Gold Coast side. This will be a tough ask for
the Giants with the Power in red hot form to start the year. The young midfield
will need to try and get on top from the start and get some scoreboard
pressure. The Power just keep getting better and better, and it shows with them
sitting nicely on top of the ladder. With Schulz a joint leader in the Coleman
Medal, look for him to exploit the Giants defence.
Tip: Over 169.5 @ $1.88. Really hard game to pick for value,
the line is big and personally I don't think they can cover it. Look for a
high scoring, free flowing shoot out.
Adelaide vs Melbourne, at Adelaide Oval, 4:40pm
Adelaide are coming off a hard fought win against the
Doggies last weekend. With Tex in the mix to return to AFL after a knee reconstruction,
the Crows are starting to look like more of a top 8 chance. With Pods having
his best game to date, albeit against an undersized defence last week look for
him to do the same thing this week against the Demons. Melbourne are coming of
another spirited game and their will efforts will pay off again soon. Getting
Dawes back a few weeks back has definitely been the turning point, and with
Jamar back in the ruck they are beginning to play the way Roos wants them to.
Tip: Melbourne to cover the line +42.5 @ $1.92. This is a
very attractive line, if Melbourne come out and play the way they have been
they should easily cover this line.
Brisbane vs
Sydney, at the Gabba 7:40pm
Brisbane were extremely lucky last weekend to hold onto a
hard fought win to get their first 4 points of the year. With Brown still being
influential and his younger counterparts like Aish popping their heads up and
contributing, look for the Lions to start being a lot more competitive on the
scoreboard. Sydney didn’t look their best last weekend but they did enough to
secure a nice little victory. With Franklin unlikely to play, that will be
forgotten with Goodes putting his hand up to play his first full game for the
year.
Tip: Under 172.5 @ $1.88. With both teams not scoring too
well this year, this seems like the safest bet for this match. Sydney is the
only team of the two to score over 100 points and that was only once, so look
for a low scoring affair at the Gabba.
Essendon vs Western Bulldogs, at Etihad Stadium, 7:40pm
Essendon were underwhelming again last week against a very
impressive Collingwood. The Bombers are in big trouble and need to find their
way out of his hole. Chappy has been the in-form player so far and needs some
backup form the other premium midfielders/forwards. The Doggies on the other
hand are still playing out of their skin, they messed up in the last quarter
against the Crows and will learn from that experience. They have a nice even
spread of contributors with Macrae being my pick of the bunch at this stage of
the year.
Tip: Western Bulldogs to cover the line +22.5 @ $1.92. The
doggies are a real danger in this game, if Essendon don’t come to play they may
struggle to win.
Sunday, May 4th
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast, at Etihad Stadium 1:10pm
North has responded with a impressive win over in Perth last
weekend. Petrie came to life and finally put a few scores on the board to help
his team across the line. Boomer had his running shoes on last week and it
showed when he was towelling Crowley up. Gold Coast are coming to Melbourne
after an impressive victory against the Giants. With Lynch kicking his first 5
goal haul he’ll be full of confidence to give the North defence a run for their
money.
Tip: Gold Coast 1-39 points @ $4.60. Coming back from Perth
and winning is the hardest task in AFL and has been for a few years now. The
Suns will be full of confidence and ready to give North everything they’ve got.
Geelong vs Richmond, at the MCG 3:20pm
Geelong are coming off a terrible performance in Adelaide
last week, their kicking was terrible and it showed on the scoreboard. They
will be fired up and ready to show the Tigers what they’re made of. Selwood was
well checked last week so he will be keen to get back to best form again.
Richmond got embarrassed by Hawthorn last weekend and were just simply
outclassed. With Martin and Cotchin being very underwhelming they will be
looking to reverse their form to try and stand up against Geelong’s strong
midfield.
Tip: Geelong 40+ @ $2.30. Geelong will be looking to use
their frustration from last week on an underperforming Richmond. Chris Scott
will want his men to dominate from start to finish and I think they will go
close to doing just that.
West Coast vs Fremantle, at Paterons Stadium 4:40pm
West Coast were extremely unlucky not to walk away with a
victory last weekend, but there’s no-one to blame but themselves. They’ve had
an interesting start to the year but a win this week would send their season in
the right direction. Once again Freo are coming off another disappointing loss,
they hate losing at home and it should still sting after last week. With
Pavlich and Fyfe the only Dockers players consistently giving their all this
year, they need back up this week to take out the 39th Western
Derby.
Tip: Under 162.5 @ $1.88. This is a very low score but I think
it can happen, both teams after Round 4 haven’t been scoring to their potential.
Derby’s are always brutal and this one definitely should be tough and tight with
hopefully a low score to top it off.
Thanks for checking out my tips for this week, follow me on
twitter and leave some feedback. @cadepinner
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