AFL Round 5 Betting Tips

Afl Round 5

Thursday, April 17

Brisbane Lions vs Richmond, at the Gabba 7:50pm

This is an interesting one, I don’t trust Richmond as far as I can throw them but surely….surely they can show something that got them to the finals last year. Brisbane started off the year in very competitive fashion, but with key injuries, a leader getting suspended and their exodus of young players from last year seemingly catching up with them it definitely isn’t looking good.

Tip: Total Score under 181.5 at $1.88. With both teams being very underwhelming on the scoreboard I thought this was the most logical bet for this game

Saturday, April 19

Collingwood vs North Melb, at the MCG 1:40pm

This is an extremely difficult one to bet on as well, both teams have definitely had their ups and downs already this season but both are tracking well atm. Collingwood’s run is back, their young defenders are standing up and their midfielders/small forwards are firing without Travis Cloke helping the scoreboard tick in his usual fashion. North on the other hand aren’t scoring as much as last year, but they are definitely keeping their opponents under check and keeping the score in their favour.

Tip: North Melbourne for the win $2. This is one of my favourite bets of the week, plenty of value if they stay at even money.

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle, at the SCG 4:40pm

You haven’t said it often over the past few seasons, but it was fair to say that Sydney got absolutely embarrassed last week at home by North. They got out pressured, out-ran and obviously out scored in what was a horrendous day for the Swans . On the other hand Fremantle regained some of the Ross Lyon swagger back, clamping down on Essendon and showing all the doubters out there that what happened against Hawthorn was just a slight glitch on premiership redemption.

 Bet of the Week 1: Fremantle -5.5 at $1.92. Fremantle are ready to get back down to business again this week and looks like an easy payday with the line at a mere -5.5 points.

West Coast Eagles vs Port Adelaide, at Patersons Stadium 5:40pm

The Eagles started off so well last weekend against the cats but obviously couldn't hold onto that pressure, not kicking a goal after quarter time. With key injuries obviously making it extremely hard for them and the injury to excitement machine Nic Nat it wasn’t a pretty night for the away team. The Power on the other hand came back from a gallant defeat by the hands of North in Round 3, to easily dispose of the Lions last weekend. Seem to have their run back they are definitely on their way to another finals campaign.

Bet of the week 2: Port Adelaide -17.5 (pick your own line) at $3.10. Port should run away with this game with ease, some of the key eagles will be back but not enough to stop the Power.

Value Bet: Port Adelaide Over 40 at $7. If you’re looking for value this could prove to be a winner if Port are allowed to use their run.

Essendon vs S Kilda, at Etihad Stadium 7:40pm

Essendon were very disappointing last week. Yes it was hot, yes it was over in Perth, but all excuses aside they failed to score efficiently and looked very fragile especially with their lack of premium ruckmen. St Kilda had started the year off in very interesting fashion, most tipped them to be bottom of the barrel cellar dwellers but they shined through and got a couple of wins and another encouraging performance. But last week wasn’t good enough, they looked outgunned from the word go even against an Adelaide side that had a discouraging start to the year.

Tip: Over 188.5 @ $1.88. One of the more difficult games of the round to tip value wise, both teams had been scoring consistently until last weekend. They’ll both look to improve and get the over in perfect Etihad conditions.

Sunday, April 20

Adelaide vs Greater Western Sydney, at Adelaide Oval 1:10

Welcome to 2014 the mighty Adelaide Crows! About time they stood up and delivered a performance their fans could be proud of. They outran and outmuscled a young Saints side and never looked like giving up their pressure from the word go. GWS were defiant in defeat against a fast improving Western Bulldogs side, they looked on top for the best part of 2 and half quarters but in the end got outdone by a enthusiastic doggies side out to prove a point this year.

Tip: Adelaide 1-39 at $2.40. Another interesting betting game in a weekend full of hard games. I believe Adelaide will win, but wont destroy a GWS side that has been holding their heads up high in the early stages of this year.

Melbourne vs Gold Coast Suns, at the MCG 3:20pm

Melbourne finally put a smile on Paul Roos’ face with the demolition of a struggling Carlton last week. They looked bold, strong and with a couple of marking targets up forward they could finally put a respectable score on the board and run away with the win. The Suns have had a very up and down start to the season, with a win against Richmond in a first round highlight to being humiliated against Hawthorn last weekend.

Tip: Under 173.5 at $1.88. This seems to be the safest bet with both teams not consistently scoring well enough to get the over.

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton, at Etihad Stadium 4:40pm

This is a game of the over achievers vs underachievers. Everyone had the Doggies at the bottom of the tables alongside Melbourne and St Kilda, but with their youthfulness shining through with touch of magic from their older hands they have defied most critics and notched a couple of wins to start their year. The story of the year so far is the way Carlton have been going about their footy. At the start of the season they would’ve locked in at least 1 win in the first 4 rounds of the year, but it hasn't happened and the heat is weighing down on the shoulders of all the players out there.

Tip: Carlton to win $2.40. The aggression didn’t come last week from the Blues but look for a definitive difference here especially if Juddy comes back to whip them into shape. If it doesn’t happen now, it never will.

Monday, April 21

Geelong vs Hawthorn

One of my favourite home and away games of the year is upon us this week, with the Mighty Cats playing the Lethal Hawks. Geelong has had a impressive start to the season considering their injuries to key outside runners and key forwards. No matter their form coming into a game against the Hawks they always get fired up to show the AFL world what they’re worth. Hawthorn have been in the same boat as Geelong to start the year, key injuries seem to have them struggling at times but they've always ended up pulling through with the 4 points. A couple of big ins will only strengthen this great side and test them to the very end.

Tip: Either team by under 15.5 points at $2.50. This is definitely the hardest game of the round to pick an outright winner. I think Hawthorn will just scrape through with a win but it will be a close well contested game. I changed my tip from Geelong to cover the line to either team by under 15.5 points, hopefully this pays off and we finish off the long weekend on a high. 

Thanks for having a look through this weeks betting tips, it’s my first post and hopefully we get some good results. Happy punting.

Cade